Good morning. Does my time machine work? I simply ask as a result of I’ve woken as much as the information that Boris Johnson is dealing with a police investigation over potential lockdown breaches and there’s a authorities crackdown on worldwide pupil visas.

These outdated tales are new once more — they usually each have political repercussions price enthusiastic about. Extra on these in at the moment’s notice. Thanks as all the time on your messages: you’ll be able to attain us on the deal with under.

Assist me — what yr is that this?!

Boris Johnson has been referred to the police by the cupboard workplace over contemporary claims that he broke lockdown guidelines whereas serving as prime minister. His ministerial diary revealed visits by pals to Chequers, the prime minister’s nation residence, through the interval of coronavirus restrictions. My former colleague Henry Zeffman bagged the inside track for the Occasions, alongside Steve Swinford and Fiona Hamilton.

Per the Occasions, the allegations got here to mild as a result of the cupboard workplace is funding Johnson’s authorized recommendation as a part of the general public inquiry into the federal government’s dealing with of the pandemic, which is why Johnson’s diary got here into their possession and in consequence into the arms of the police. The previous prime minister has denied wrongdoing.

There are two vital issues to notice right here, politically talking. The primary is that it will increase the possibilities that the Commons’ privileges committee will hand Johnson a sanction that exceeds the ten working days required to set off a recall petition and a by-election in his Uxbridge and South Ruislip constituency.

The second is that it’s a reminder to Conservative MPs of simply how drained they’d change into of the scandals and controversies that bedevilled Johnson’s authorities. (Don’t neglect that it was really a very completely different scandal that triggered the final word finish of Johnson’s premiership.)

All in all, it’s a day that reinforces Rishi Sunak’s inside standing and additional bolsters his place on the high of the Conservative social gathering.

Path of least resistance

One cause why the Conservatives’ web migration goal is very undesirable for my part is that it misshapes authorities coverage, making it extra draconian in direction of the types of immigration it could possibly simply management.

What drives the UK’s excessive web migration figures? Labour shortages in industries starting from healthcare to agriculture. Whereas authorities may sort out these gaps with out growing the variety of people who find themselves allowed to return to the UK, it might require spending some huge cash and time. The stream of refugees stemming from Vladimir Putin’s invasion in Ukraine and the arrival of individuals with British Nationwide (Abroad) standing from Hong Kong have additionally boosted numbers. Whereas the UK authorities goals to keep away from crackdowns by China or makes an attempt to reshape the world’s borders by power, neither of these items are within the management of the UK.

What the federal government does management is who can — and might’t — come to the UK on a pupil visa. Consequently, at any time when the online migration goal comes again up within the information, the federal government responds by introducing new restrictions on pupil visas. It did so once more yesterday. The UK will ban from subsequent January most worldwide college students from bringing relations with them.

The massive political drawback right here is that the migration of abroad college students to Britain is a) standard and b) important to the underside line of universities. It’s a symptom of a broader drawback: that what the federal government does on immigration has change into utterly divorced from its broader coverage goals. If the intention is to run greater training as a profitable export trade that educates British college students on the aspect, then we’re going to have excessive ranges of web migration yearly. If you wish to transfer away from that, you need to make completely different selections.

However as it’s, we do neither: we now have a web migration goal that’s far faraway from the remainder of the UK’s political goals and that encourages ministers to achieve for the comparatively few levers they management instantly, even when they contain limiting types of immigration that voters really like.

Now do that

Final weekend, on the advice of my boss, Alice Fishburn, I went to see Operation Mincemeat, the musical in regards to the second world conflict operation of the identical title.

It’s a fully sensible musical that throughly deserves the glowing evaluation that Sarah Hemming has given it. The manufacturing tells the story of the titular operation with wit, verve and an astonishingly versatile forged.

That simply 5 actors carry the musical to life seems like a magic trick, and all of them deserve each potential award. Its run on the Fortune Theatre in London has been prolonged till mid-August, so there may be loads of time to go and see it. You will get Alice’s round-up of the week’s greatest commentary and evaluation each Saturday by subscribing to our Opinion publication, despatched Monday to Saturday.

Prime tales at the moment

• Inflation drops | UK inflation fell to eight.7 per cent in April, a smaller fall than the Financial institution of England anticipated, elevating strain on the central financial institution to maintain growing rates of interest. Meals value inflation remained near 45-year peaks, at 19.1 per cent in April in contrast with 19.2 per cent in March. 

• Reeves embraces Bidenomics | Shadow chancellor Rachel Reeves will embrace “Bidenomics” as a template for a Labour authorities, saying Britain dangers being “sidelined” until it accepts that the foundations of the worldwide financial system have modified.

• EU calls time on Metropolis clearing | Brussels has rebuffed trade calls to rethink its plan for grabbing profitable clearing enterprise from the Metropolis of London, saying it must proceed to make sure strong markets in Europe.

• Sunak pledges long-term assist for Ukraine | Western help for Kyiv will proceed “for years”, the UK prime minister has stated, within the newest signal that Ukraine’s western allies are ready to help the nation by an extended battle in opposition to Russia.